Built on last season. Blind to the window.
As of 4 July, this is a projection built on one thing: where everyone finished in May. It deliberately ignores the transfer window, which is open and will make parts of it look daft by September. Arsenal won the league on 85 points, seven clear of Manchester City, and champions with that margin start as favourites. City spending the summer building a response is the safest call on the board. Manchester United finished third and made Michael Carrick permanent, so the projection keeps them in the top four, with the caveat that his first full season is a different exam. Aston Villa and Liverpool complete the five returning to the Champions League. Liverpool are the hardest side to place: fifth read like the floor of that squad, and Andoni Iraola now inherits it. At the bottom of the sheet, Tottenham finished 17th, two points above the drop. The projection says that does not happen twice. But it is a projection. The window will have its say.